Jim, I think the key factor will be time. How much time will the NW transit add to the ship's voyage? Even if the cargo isn't particularly time-sensitive (although most are), the ship itself is. These large carriers cost unbelievable numbers of dollars per day just to exist. Every day that the ship runs carrying the same cargo is money dumped into the wake. Unless they can get to the US east coast in almost the same time as the west coast, trans-shipment to rail is more cost-effective because it allows the ship to turn back with or for another load. Bulk carriers might be a different story. Chinese coal for east coast electricity could well benefit from a NW passage -- but it's not happening now. Asia to Europe is still another instance of a possible NW advantage. However, I don't see any of this having any impact on what's left of the Erie Lackawanna. If the Southern Tier was going to become a major player in transcontinental container traffic, it would have done so by now. As my father-in-law used say, as he regarded the split left by a "perfect strike ball": "Could'a'? Should'a'? Would'a'!" Randy Brown - -------------------------------------------------------------- . . . I thought I might solicit some commentary on recent speculation that within the next decade or two, a commercial shipping lane across the Arctic Sea may open up due to warming trends. . . So what might that do to double-stack container traffic on the rails? How much do the big four lines currently depend upon international traffic from Asia to East Coast markets? Could the RR "land bridge" still compete against an all-ship route via the NW Passage? And how does this relate to the EL? . . . Jim Gerofsky The Erie Lackawanna Mailing List http://EL-List.railfan.net/ To Unsubscribe: http://Lists.Railfan.net/erielackunsub.html ------------------------------
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